MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0203
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
826 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN DE...SOUTHEAST PA...NJ...EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NY...CT
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 150020Z - 150300Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGERING FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION...INTENSE COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO IMPACT AN
AREA ERN MD/DE NEWD UP ACROSS NJ...FAR SERN NY AND INTO SWRN CT.
THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A MOIST/UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LYR AND A CONFLUENT LOW LVL SWLY FETCH. THERE IS ALSO
EVIDENCE OF A WEAK AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN NJ WHICH IS
AIDING THE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION. WHICH IS AND A
WEAK AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS GIVEN THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LVL
CINH.
THE 18Z NAM-CONEST...12Z ARW AND 12Z NMMB ALL SUGGEST CONVECTION
LINGERING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND ISOLATED HEAVIER AMTS POSSIBLE. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL ONLY WORK TO EXACERBATE THE FLASH FLOODING
SITUATION THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS ESP CNTRL/NRN NJ AND THE
IMMEDIATE SUBURBS OF NYC.
ORRISON
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...
ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...
LAT...LON 41687182 40957213 39727396 39097541 39627590 40497552
41297426 41977246 41687182
Last Updated: 826 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014