MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0204
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
410 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 152007Z - 160107Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES
THE COAST. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE ONGOING FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF 1.75 TO 2 INCH PWS AND A CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.  THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE OF A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. 

SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PERSISTENT
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. 
THE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL ONLY WORSEN THE FLASH FLOODING SITUATION
THAT IS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND
INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR OF THE NORTHEAST U.S.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   38197713 39327652 40707537 42217343 42597140 41717037
            40807157 39887354 38507474 36917560 36287623 36457719
            37277737 38197713