MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0205
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
932 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA...EASTERN PA...NJ...INTO CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 160131Z - 160531Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A STRONG COLD
FRONT REACHES THE COAST. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE
ONGOING FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM SOUTHERN PA TO
EASTERN NY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION.  THE
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 1.75 TO 2 INCH PWS
AND A CONFLUENT AND HUMID LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.  MANY
OF THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN
EARLIER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PERSISTENT
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. 
RISING CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   40697278 40067453 39897612 40887611 42147517 43337429
            44427316 44767204 44527116 43897082 42677107 41457184
            40697278