MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0206
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
204 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ARIZONA INTO SRN NEW MEXICO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 161801Z - 170000Z
 
SUMMARY...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 IN/HR EXPECTED OVER ERN ARIZONA INTO
WRN NEW MEXICO WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SCATTERED THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING. 

DISCUSSION...THE 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING GENERALLY WEST-EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA
BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB. THIS TROUGH AXIS WAS CO-LOCATED AREA OF
DISSIPATING CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED...LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS SEEN ON LATEST
VIS IMAGERY. WITH INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING...ML CAPE VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AS SEEN ON THE 17Z
SPC MESOANALYSIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TOWARD THE
SRN EDGE OF THE THREAT AREA FROM ABOUT 1 INCH TO 1.75
INCHES...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN. 

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH 00Z. WEAK STORM
MOTIONS AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF ROUGHLY 10-15 KTS TOWARD THE
ESE AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND SLOW MOVING
CELLS WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR. A CONSENSUS OF
THE 12Z HI-RES MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WHICH
AGREES WITH CONCEPTUAL THINKING.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35341159 35651047 35440849 35180763 34440710 33660726
            31960746 31280821 30950970 31081058 31441107 32001119
            32521113 32991132 33781198 34711219 35341159