MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0207
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
911 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SE COLORADO TO TEXAS PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 170110Z - 170710Z
 
SUMMARY...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING NEAR A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.  THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A DEVELOPING THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING LATE THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING TO
THE SOUTHEAST.  A DEVELOPING 35KT LOW LEVEL JET IN THE WARM SECTOR
IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH PWS NORTHWARD AND OVERRUN
A COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER
ASCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG CAPE VALUES PER THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THIS REGION. 
THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE SHORT-TERM MODELS
WITH AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN BY 6Z WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.


HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...
PUB...BOU...ABQ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33670233 34450279 35330327 36360401 37370452 38300425
            38770310 38300184 37260074 35829977 34269761 32949784
            32669892 32740028 33110154 33670233