MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0208
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK...NORTHERN TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 170700Z - 171300Z
 
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING
AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND
NORTHERN TX.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS ERN CO ATTM...AND THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN KS AND
WRN OK THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE ENERGY THOUGH IS FOSTERING A SFC
WAVE ACROSS NRN TX ALONG A WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE...AND IS
PROMOTING A PERSISTENT AND WELL-DEFINED WARM AIR/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT PATTERN THROUGHOUT A LARGE PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS. 

THIS IS RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION...AND RADAR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RATHER BROAD AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING CELL-MERGERS AND IN SOME CASES VERY
SLOW-MOVING CELL CLUSTERS. 

MUCAPE VALUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER ARE AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG TO 2000 J/KG AND WITH S/SWLY H85
FLOW OF 30 TO 40 KTS...THIS ENERGY IS OVERRUNNING THE FRONT AND
HELPING TO FOSTER SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED CONVECTION IN CNTRL/SRN OK AND NRN TX. THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ERN CO SHOULD SUSTAIN THE LOW LVL WARM
AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PATTERN...AND PWATS INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE
WHICH ARE AS HIGH AS 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES ARE FORECAST BY GLOBAL
MODELS TO RISE TO LOCALLY OVER 2 INCHES BY 12Z. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT THROUGH MID-MORNING.

THE HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM-CONEST...00Z ARW AND 00Z
NMMB ALL APPEAR TO BE A BIT SLOW WITH THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION...BUT THEY COUPLED WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. BASED ON THE LATEST
CONVECTIVE TRENDS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMTS OVER 5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ESP WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
LOCALLY OF 2 TO 3 INCHES/HR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33600106 33860179 34300241 34780265 35190241 35190184
            35080070 35609964 36389870 36339722 35739588 34719506
            33729492 33049551 32889624 32859740 33019881 33440036
            33600106