MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0209
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
854 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NRN TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 171253Z - 171845Z
 
SUMMARY...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z WITH
MODEST OVERRUNNING OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE PRESENCE OF
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MOISTURE. SLOW MOVEMENT OF AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL KEEP FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...SSWLY 925-850 MB FLOW OF 20-30 KTS AS SAMPLED BY 12Z
RAOB DATA AND VAD WIND PROFILES AT KGRK AND KFWS CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL TEXAS IN THE PRESENCE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SAMPLED
SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-1500 J/KG PER 12Z KFWD SOUNDING SOUTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING 700 MB WAVE OVER WRN OKLAHOMA WHICH IS FORECAST TO VERY
SLOWLY TRACK EAST TODAY...REACHING CNTRL OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING.

WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE THREAT AREA...THERE ARE PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED
REGION THAT HAVE RECEIVED 3 HOUR RAINFALL RATES OF 5 TO 6 INCHES
OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO RECEIVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THIS MORNING. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH A SLOW EWD OR
SEWD DRIFT PER RAP FORECAST CORFIDI VECTORS. THE 00Z HRW ARW AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 4-6
INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER TO THE NORTH OF THE DFW
METROPLEX THROUGH 19Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING TO THE SOUTH WHERE RECENT COOLING ON IR IMAGERY HAS BEEN
OBSERVED. 

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   30080022 32170008 33529882 34149712 34209552 34019445
            33439414 32269496 31169709 29959883 30080022