MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0211
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1156 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 180350Z - 180700Z
 
SUMMARY...A LINEAR ELEVATED BAND OF WARM TOP CONVECTION IS SEEN
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE REPEATING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SOME COOLING OF CLOUD
TOPS OVER NRN AR IN ASSOC WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
LWR MS VLY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER LINEAR SW/NRN ORIENTED
BAND OF OTHERWISE WARM-TOPPED CONVECTION IMPACTING THIS AREA WHICH
ASIDE FROM LARGER SCALE FORCING ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPEARS TO ALSO BE AIDED BY AN AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LVL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.

DESPITE THE SHALLOW AND ELEVATED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY...THE PWAT
ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE HIGH...WITH GPS DERIVED PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.9
INCHES. THIS COUPLED WITH SOME WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL FOSTER
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THIS SET-UP WELL...BUT
SAT/RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE REGION.

SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST LOCALLY WHERE THE
ACTIVITY TENDS TO REPEAT AND/OR TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   35909038 35399154 35039274 34989412 35319439 35899352
            36229205 36329061 35909038