MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0219
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
352 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN IN...CENTRAL KY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 270751Z - 271151Z
 
SUMMARY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY
TRAIN FROM SOUTHERN IN INTO CENTRAL KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
TRAINING CELLS COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES
ACROSS AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY HEAVY RAINS EARLIER IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...RAISING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS WHILE
RADAR INDICATES INCREASING RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IN
INTO CENTRAL KY.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  MOST RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PWS AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES NEAR THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION.  UPWIND
PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD TRACK STEADILY
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THIS AREA...HOWEVER THE CONTINUANCE OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH FAVORABLE UPPER
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO ENCOURAGE REGENERATION UPSTREAM..WITH CELLS
POTENTIALLY TRAINING OVER THE SAME REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRW-ARW..HRW-NMMB..GENERALLY AGREE ON AN AXIS
OF HEAVY AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2-4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHERN IN THROUGH CENTRAL KY.  SOME OF THESE
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO FALL ACROSS AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...IND...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38718644 38468567 38028496 37488426 37078428 37018497
            37278575 37828614 38758723 38718644