MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0222
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
628 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NM...SRN CO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 272226Z - 280256Z
 
SUMMARY...AN INCREASE OF KEY PARAMETERS SUCH AS CLOUD BASE
INFLOW...CAPE...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS CAUSE FOR CONCERN THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

DISCUSSION...BENEATH AN UPPER HIGH STEERING WINDS WERE INITIALLY
WEAK...AND WILL REMAIN SO OVER CO. THROUGH 03Z...HOWEVER...INFLOW
AT CLOUD BASE...NEAR 700 MB...WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE IN A
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. THE RAP/HRRR INDICATE A PRONOUNCED
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND CAPE AS THIS OCCURS...NOT ONLY ALONG THE
EASTERN PLAINS...BUT INTO THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY
IN NEW MEXICO. ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL DRIFT
NORTHWEST...THOSE CELLS AROUND ABQ HAD SHOWN TENDENCY TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTWARD SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW...FACING THE INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THIS CREATES A SITUATION IN WHICH
PERIODIC DOWNPOURS FROM MULTIPLE CELLS MAY OCCUR AT A GIVEN
LOCATION OVER A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD. MULTIPLE GAUGES AROUND SANTA FE
AND LOS ALAMOS HAD ALREADY RECORDED OVER 8 OR 9 TENTHS OF AN INCH
IN SHORT DURATION.

OF FURTHER CONCERN...WHEREAS THE MODELS INDICATED MORE ACTIVITY ON
THE EASTERN PLAINS...THE ATMOSPHERE THERE HAD BEEN RELUCTANT TO
PRODUCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF UPPER SUPPORT.
WITH EVENTS REQUIRING HIGHER ELEVATION TO INITIATE...THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN MAY BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE RATON MESA AND ALSO IN
AND AROUND ABQ. THE LATTER LOCATION IS PREDICTED TO SEE A REGIONAL
MAXIMUM OF 850-700MB INFLOW THROUGH MID EVENING. THE HRRR AND
PARALLEL NAM CONEST HAD A MORE REASONABLE HANDLE IN FORMING
CONVECTION NEARER THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND THE BETTER CALIBRATED
HRRR SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED 2-INCH RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHANGE OF GREATER AMOUNTS IF A WELL ESTABLISHED COLD
POOL WERE TO FORM NEAR THE INCREASING INFLOW IN CENTRAL NM.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37600646 38190606 38900597 39430547 39260489 38810443
            38310396 37540346 36790331 35860356 34770430 34240549
            34330688 34870763 35990781 36900727 37600646