MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0224
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1114 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN CO AND NORTHEASTERN NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 280314Z - 280814Z
 
SUMMARY...ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF
CO/NM AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS; LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE

DISCUSSION...A SMALL SCALE VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MOIST
MONSOONAL SURGE FROM MEXICO AND UNDERNEATH A STURDY UPPER DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO TRIGGER AREAS OF ORGANZIED HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS IS ALL NORTH OF A STRONG SURFACE FRONT WHICH SURGED
SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS SMALL SCALE VORT WITH DECENT PW NUMBERS AIDED BY ESE UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING THIS ACTIVITY TO
FLOURISH. WHAT IS CONCERNING IS THE ALMOST UNCAPPED INSTABILITY
AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW TO SPELL VERY SLOW MOVING AND PERSISTING
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL... ENHANCED BY THE TERRAIN. THIS SMALL
SCALE VORT IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT... WHICH COULD ALLOW THE GENERAL TWO AREAS AT THE MOMENT
FORM INTO SOME MESO COMPLEX FOR HEAVY RAIN TO TRANSITION
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS
BANKED UP ALONG THE ERN FOOTHILLS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...
WHERE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RAIN RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
POSSIBLE RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOOD ISSUES.

MUSHER

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35670579 36430575 36840498 37360465 38030479 39130512
            39660476 39630435 39280380 37820230 36870185 35290180
            34740282 35160397 35670579