MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0225
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1219 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND UPSTATE NEW YORK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 280417Z - 281017Z
 
SUMMARY...A RARE SUMMER-TIME SYNOPTIC SCALE HEAVY RAIN EVENT
APPEARS VERY LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...AN OPEN WAVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES IS INDUCING A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THE DIP IN THE UPPER JET STREAM
IS ALLOWING FOR A RARE JULY UPPER JET/250MB COUPLING TO ENHANCE
THE VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THIS LIFT IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO CAPITALIZE ON DEEP MOISTURE INFLOW OF 1.5 INCH PWS
SURGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE HEAVY
RAIN IS ALREADY FLOURISHING IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT
FROM BUF/ROC TO BGM. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE IS
RATHER UNANIMOUS IN A FULL-FLEDGED SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMIC
COOLING/DEFORMATION AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY LIKELY WITH 1
TO 3 INCH AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS AND LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES. IN FACT
THE 00Z NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE VALUES APPROACHING 3 AND 2
INCHES RESPECTIVELY FROM 06Z TO 12Z THIS MORNING... THUS A LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR FLASH FLOODING.

MUSHER 

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   43467911 42847955 42337881 42427603 43647448 44797417
            44957493 44457613 43467911