MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0227
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
217 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 281816Z - 290016Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY COULD TRAIN
ACROSS SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.  FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.

DISCUSSION...AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CYCLONE FOR LATE JULY IS
FOCUSING CONVECTION FROM ITS TROWAL FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
NY INTO SOUTHEAST NY NEAR THE MAIN SURFACE LOW.  UP TO FIVE INCHES
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES NEAR THE MAIN UPPER
CENTER DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN
1.25-1.5", WHILE 850 HPA INFLOW INTO THE WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IS AROUND 35 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES.  CAPE VALUES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE INCREASED TO
OVER 1000 J/KG REGIONALLY, WITH 2000+ VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IN THE SYSTEM'S WARM SECTOR.  THESE CRITERIA MEET THE
LOWER THRESHOLD OF THE WET MULTI-CELL ENVIRONMENT.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM A FLASH FLOOD PERSPECTIVE APPEARS TO BE CELL
TRAINING IN THIS REGION NEAR THE MAIN UPPER LOW, ALONG THE
SYSTEM'S TROWAL, AND NEAR/NORTH OF THE CYCLONE'S WARM FRONT. 
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.5" AN HOUR REMAIN POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING WHERE CELLS TRAIN.  A QUICK 3-5" OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE LOCALLY IN THIS REGION, MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   42747629 43307523 44527369 45067336 45087235 45267161
            45927037 46196911 45376811 44606901 43807050 43027195
            42857252 42537262 42267331 42527411 42187631 42747629