MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0228
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CO AND NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 281943Z - 290143Z
 
SUMMARY...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVER SATURATED SOILS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
TERRAIN OF CO AND NM DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.  MIXED LAYER CAPES
HAVE EXCEEDED 1000 J/KG IN AN AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
~1.25".  A COUPLE CONVERGENCE ZONES COULD BE SEEN IN 19Z SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NM AND CO WHICH COULD FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.  

BOTH VERSIONS OF THE PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE CELL MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THERE IS A
SIGNAL WITHIN THE 12Z SSEO THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES THAT CENTRAL CO TO NORTHEAST NM HAVE A
50-70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, WHICH MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CO AND NM
DURING THE PAST DAY.  THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE COULD ALLOW HOURLY
RAIN RATES OF UP TO 1.5".  MESOSCALE QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 2-3" ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD EXCEED FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE LOCALLY.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   39170869 40190757 40700574 40390409 39220331 36780321
            35110373 33930511 33470590 33030698 33150831 34950835
            36680705 37100723 37890844 38540884 39170869