MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0232
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN CO INTO SOUTHWESTERN KS AND OK/TX
PANHANDLES 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 300612Z - 301212Z
 
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CO/SOUTHWESTERN KS WITH A MORE ISOLATED RISK ACROSS
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF MONSOONAL UPPER DYNAMICS AND
MID-LEVEL LOW FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN FACT... RADAR
IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE MESO LOWS OVER ERN
CO/WRN KS ADVANCING SOUTH AND EAST OR ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER TIME. ADVECTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THIS
BOUNDARY AND MESO LOWS IS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN
ACTIVE NOCTURNAL 850MB LOW LEVEL JET... RESULTING IN POOLING OF
1.5-1.6" PWS WHICH MAY INCREASE TO 2". COMBO WATER AND IR SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS A FLOURISH IN COLD CLOUD TOPS INDICATING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS. THIS APPEARS INVOF OF SLIGHT
250MB UPPER JET COUPLING... LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 50KT STREAK OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND 90-110KT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION STREAK
ALONG THE ACTIVE POLAR FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SORT OF ATMOSPHERIC SQUEEZE PLAY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS LIKELY NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE
FROM SERN CO INTO SWRN KS AND MORE ISOLATED THREAT OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES... WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. EXPECT
POSSIBLE RUNOFF AND PERHAPS MORE LONGER DURATION FLOODING THAN
FLASH VARIETY WITH 2-4" INCHES POSSIBLE AND LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES.

MUSHER

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35440266 37560363 39370188 38840005 37539803 36349777
            35529845 34890056 35440266