MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0235
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
651 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM/FAR WEST TX... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 311050Z - 311405Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO PERSIST ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEASTERN NM. EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TX BORDER IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER FAR WEST TX.

DISCUSSION...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH WAS MORE CONFINED TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL NM HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED FOCUS TOWARD THE EAST WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL TRAINING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NM. WHILE INSTABILITY
HAS GRADUALLY WANED OVER THE REGION...09Z RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH A SATURATED LAYER EXTENDING
FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 600-MB. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM LOCAL
WSR-88D RADARS INDICATED MODERATE 25 TO 30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY WITH THE 09Z RAP SHOWING 500
TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. 

HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS CONVECTION WELL AT
ALL SO RELYING COMPLETELY ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA ALONG WITH
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS AREA HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED FLASH
FLOODING CONDITIONS PER A REPORT IN EDDY COUNTY IN NM. WHILE
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES MAY NOT EXCEED 1.50 INCHES...IT SHOULD STILL
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST
14Z. 

RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34620422 34390364 33970328 33140308 31950309 31120358
            30820427 30890526 31430611 32140621 32630573 33350509
            34340463 34620422