MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0237
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1216 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN GA/WESTERN SC/SOUTHWESTERN NC... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 311615Z - 312015Z
 
SUMMARY...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ZONE MIGRATING INLAND OFF THE SC COAST. 

DISCUSSION...A VERY ACTIVE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION PERSISTING FOR A FEW
HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF GREENVILLE...SC
HAVE SHOWN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST 3 HOURS
ALONE. THE 14Z RAP SOUNDINGS WERE VERY MOIST OVER THIS REGION WITH
A SATURATED LAYER EXTENDING ABOVE 500-MB. WHILE INSTABILITY WAS
INITIALLY LACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF
SC/NC...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN
ADVECTING HIGHER THETA-E AIR INLAND WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED A CIRCULATION MOVING INLAND WHICH HAS BEEN
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE STRETCHING
WEST-EAST. AS THIS ORGANIZED AXIS OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE INLAND...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS OF
~16Z...THE NEW FOCUS HAS BEEN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN GA WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SAB/NESDIS...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT CONTINUING. WILL REASSESS AS NEWER 12Z MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
ARRIVES.



RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34478322 35028297 35408267 35658209 35568159 35218130
            34728179 34528193 33738233 33708294 33878320 34478322