MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 238
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
754 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST GA...WESTERN SC...WESTERN NC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 312353Z - 010553Z
 
SUMMARY...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS ARE LIKELY
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.  DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE
FLOW AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. 

DISCUSSION...AFTER A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS REGION
EARLIER ON THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEARS
LIKELY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE 925-800MB
LAYER IS ADVECTING NEARLY 2 INCH PW VALUES INLAND THAT WILL RESULT
IN A NEARLY SATURATED LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE.  THE UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THIS AREA WILL ADD ADDITIONAL LIFT.  THE OVERALL RESULT
SHOULD BE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH VERY EFFICIENT WARM-CLOUD
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.  

LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AFTER THE EARLIER RAIN...ALONG
WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC...WILL CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED AREAS OF POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING.  AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE SATELITE ANALYSIS
BRANCH...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
LATER TONIGHT. 


HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34458495 35268395 35978272 36468184 36497989 36097931
            35128002 34518068 33958160 33688247 33638463 34458495