MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0239
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1123 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 010322Z - 010922Z
 
SUMMARY...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL LOCALLY INCREASE AS A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CNTRL NEW MEXICO MEETS WITH CELL
DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH 09Z. 

DISCUSSION...A SWD PROPAGATING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED OVER CNTRL NEW MEXICO AS OF 03Z WITH IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUING TO SHOW COOLING AND EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS TOWARD THE SSW
INTO THE MEXICAN HIGHLANDS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM EPZ SHOWED VERY
WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THROUGHOUT THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER...LESS
THAN 5 KTS...AND WAS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS.
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION IS WEAK BUT NON-ZERO AND COLOCATED
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN.

DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE REGION...THE CONCERN IS
WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO PERSISTING THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND THE APPROACH OF THE EXPANDING CLUSTER OF
STORMS FROM THE NORTH...PRODUCING RAINFALL EXCEEDING RELATIVELY
LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.
HI-RES ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS MADE UP OF THE HRRR...NMM...ARW AND
CONEST NAM SUGGEST SRN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WRN TEXAS WILL SEE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES BY 09Z. 

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31170843 32340858 33190781 33920702 34200647 34210552
            33890481 32490461 30790421 30530542 31150693 31170843