MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0253
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 PM EDT WED AUG 06 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST NV...CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ID...FAR
NORTHWEST UT...FAR WESTERN WY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 061830Z - 070030Z
 
SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PROFILE OF THE COLUMN WILL
PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WV/IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT MID
LVL VORT CENTER OVER SERN ID WHICH CONTUINUES TO FOSTER A 
CONCENTRATED AXIS OF ORGANIZED ASCENT. THIS IS OCCURING WITHIN A
COLUMN OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MOISTURE. GOES-SOUNDER PWATS ARE ON
THE ORDER OF 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM NRN NV
NEWD INTO MUCH OF SERN ID WHICH ARE 2 TO 3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS IS ALSO ALIGNED IN GENERAL WITH A LARGER SCALE DEFORMATION
ZONE AS DEPICTED BY WV IMAGERY.

ALREADY THERE IS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF MDT RAINS ASSOCD WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMICAL FORCING...BUT THE LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS AN EXPANDING CU/TCU FIELD OVER SERN ID AND FAR WRN WY ASSOCD
WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
AREA OF SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG WHICH SHOULD INCREASE A
BIT MORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING.

THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL GOES-CI PRODUCT INDICATES A LIKELIHOOD FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS...AND AS A RESULT IT IS EXPECTED THAT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.

GIVEN THE VERY WEAK PROPOGATION VECTORS AND SUCH AN ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE PROFILE...HEAVY RAINFALL AMTS ARE EXPECTED...AND ESP WITH
RAINFALL RATES THAT MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 1.5 INCHES/HR.
THEREFORE FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...MBRFC...NWRFC...

LAT...LON   43111030 42381136 41831281 41431420 41501539 42241575
            43171524 44131355 44701190 44611076 43891020 43111030