MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0254
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
613 PM EDT WED AUG 06 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHEASTERN
KS......SOUTHWESTERN IA...NORTHWESTERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 062213Z - 070313Z
 
SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CELLS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AS THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPPER VORT
INTERACTS WITH A PERSISTENT AXIS OF MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
INFLOW.
 
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES IR/VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE
AFFORDED BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER VORT CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN
KS.  PWS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE ALONG AN AXIS OF 15-20 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY-SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PWS
OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES ACROSS THIS REGION.  THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THIS
AXIS PERSISTING...FOSTERING FURTHER INCREASING PWS AND
REDEVELOPING CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE VORT
DRIFTS TO THE EAST.  THE 12Z HRW-ARW/HRW-NMMB AND THE 21Z HRRR
INDICATE RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION.  REDEVELOPING CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...RAISING THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40669656 41069587 40749456 40209394 39469410 38669496
            38959582 39559586 39929680 40669656 
!