MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0255
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1114 PM EDT WED AUG 06 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN NE/NORTHEASTERN KS/SOUTHERN
IA/NORTHERN MO... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 070313Z - 070613Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOPMENT NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. 1 TO 2
INCH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THE
DEEPER CONVECTION. EXPECT SUCH RATES TO CONTINUE UNTIL ~06Z.
 
DISCUSSION...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A WIDESPREAD AXIS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN
KS/NORTHERN MO. A LOW-LEVEL JET WITH WIND SPEEDS OBSERVED AROUND
25 KNOTS SHOULD SLIGHTLY PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY TO
THE SOUTH TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AND MAINTAIN A FAIRLY HEALTHY
COMPLEX OF CONVECTION. THE 01Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED
PWATS IN THE 2 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE ANCHORING MUCH OF WESTERN MO.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER IN TIME WHICH WILL TRANSPORT
THIS HIGHER PWAT AIR DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL MO LATER IN THE
NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...MUCH OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD BE SLOW TO VACATE
NORTHWESTERN MO WHERE THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING IS LOCATED.
EVENTUALLY THE MODE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS.

EVALUATING SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...THERE IS A
STRONG HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL AMONG MANY OF THE MODELS. THE 00Z NAM
CONEST/NAM CONEST EXPERIMENTAL...01Z HRRR...18Z GEM REGIONAL...AND
00Z NAM PARALLEL SHOW 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL ALONG THE MO/IA
BORDER BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z. GIVEN CLOUD TOPS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE
SIGNS OF WARMING ALONG WITH THE PREPONDERENCE OF GUIDANCE
DEPICTING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL...AN MPD WILL BE ISSUED
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38939593 40249587 40719493 40839268 40229177 39619156
            39099167 38829219 38699337 38499473 38939593