MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0260
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1256 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN NEB/EASTERN KS/FAR WESTERN MO... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 100455Z - 100825Z
 
SUMMARY...CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NE/NORTH-CENTRAL KS AS THE ACTIVITY MARCHES EASTWARD. MULTIPLE
CELL MERGERS AND REPEAT CONVECTION SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN 1 TO 2
INCH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES WHICH MAY LEAD TO EPISODES OF FLASH
FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN MCS TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KS WITH FORWARD PROGRESSION PRIMARILY
MITIGATING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. TO THE NORTH...AN ORGANIZED AREA
OF CONVECTION WAS DROPPING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR BASED ON
THE WSR-88D IN TOPEKA...KS AS WELL AS METARS. MULTIPLE CELL
MERGERS ARE EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES TOWARD EASTERN KS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE
FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WITH 03Z RAP FORECASTS
DEPICTING 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ADVECTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET MAY PICK UP IN INTENSITY WITH 850-MB WINDS REACHING 25 TO 30
KNOTS. 

THUS FAR...THE 00Z HRW-NMMB/ARW AND 03Z HRRR ALL FAVOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THIS GENERAL CORRIDOR THROUGH THE NEXT 3 TO
4 HOURS. WILL REASSESS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING TO SEE IF THE
COMPLEX IS STILL INTACT.



RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38329471 38039518 37889613 37889776 38239825 38889805
            39419808 40019829 40689865 41209863 41369848 41539812
            41419766 41109703 40659635 40089540 39549478 38929455
            38329471