MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0262
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS & SOUTHWESTERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 102003Z - 110003Z
 
SUMMARY...WARM-TOPPED CONVECTION NEAR A SURFACE LOW AND ITS
RELATED TROWAL COULD LEAD TO HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2".  FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS WITH RELATIVELY LOW FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES.

DISCUSSION...WARM-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL KS/MO BORDER AND
ALONG ITS TROWAL WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF KANSAS CITY.  RAP-BASED SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE MOIST IN
THE LOW LEVELS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL CELL PROPAGATION,
WHICH APPEARS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MO AND
NORTHEAST KS.  MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE 1.75-2" WITHIN THE REGION, AROUND THE 80TH PERCENTILE FOR
AUGUST 10.

THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE SURFACE LOW (AND ITS 850 HPA
REFLECTION) SHOULD TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST MO OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW'S PROGRESSION,
CELL TRAINING IS POSSIBLE WHERE BETTER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS
BEING REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO OVER THE NEXT FOUR
HOURS, WITH IS ALSO A REGION OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW.  THE 12Z
SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES SHOW A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES THROUGH 23Z BEFORE FADING. 
RECENT RAP RUNS SUGGEST THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD FALL BELOW 1000
J/KG IN THIS REGION BY 00Z, WHICH HAS BEEN USED AS THE TIME
HORIZON OF THIS MPD.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" AN HOUR, WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" ADVERTISED BY THE RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE,
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   37719159 37529290 38359466 39609548 39859419 38789182
            37719159