MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0272
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
157 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......FOUR CORNERS REGION... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 131757Z - 132157Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME INCREASING POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS SLOW MOVING DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH
POSSIBLE TRAINING.

DISCUSSION...A NARROW REGION OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SLOW
MOVING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INCLUDING A LARGE PORTION OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM...AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUANS AND WASATCH RANGES. 

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST
NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF DRIFTING NORTHWARD...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
DRAPED ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER CREATING STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.  THE EARLY STAGES OF CONVECTION HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE
AVERAGE CAPES HAVE RISEN TO 750-1500 J/KG.  GIVEN THAT SEVERAL
HOURS OF ADDITIONAL INSOLATION ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...MORE CONVECTION IS LIKELY.  

VERTICAL CHANGES IN WIND ARE ALSO WEAK AND MOSTLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...SUGGESTING THAT CELL MOTION WILL AVERAGE LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS TOWARD THE NORTH...SUPPORTING RAIN RATES OF 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES PER HOUR.  GIVEN THAT 2 OR MORE HOURS OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE...THE RISK OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
SIGNIFICANT. 

JAMES

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36991204 38621172 39171099 38411022 38520940 38080874
            38230690 36670642 33810719 33380852 35341001 35591150
            36991204