MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0286
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
759 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST AR...MO BOOTHEEL...WESTERN TN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 172350Z - 180330Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL TRAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN LIKELY
THROUGH THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT W/E
ORIENTED BAND OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE
MO BOOTHEEL ESEWD INTO W CNTRL TN. TRAINING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
AREA HAS LED TO DUAL-POL RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 6 TO 7 INCHES
LOCALLY. 

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ALONG A VERY SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT AND WITHIN A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BNDRY LYR WILL MOVE
EAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS THAT ALREADY SAW HVY RAINS
EARLIER.

GOES SOUNDER PWATS REMAIN AOA 2 INCHES IN THIS AREA AND SO
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE EXTREMELY HVY AND COULD APPROACH 3
INCHES/HR WITHIN THE DEEPEST CELLS AND WHERE OVERSHOOTING TOPS
OCCUR. 

THE 18Z NAM-CONEST AND 12Z NMMB SUPPORT AN AXIS OF ADDITIONAL HVY
RAINS AFTER 00Z WHICH APPEARS LIKELY BASED ON THE LATEST SAT/RADAR
TRENDS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER ESP
PORTIONS OF WRN TN BETWEEN ESP 00Z AND 03Z...WITH THE ACTIVITY
THEN WEAKENING THEREAFTER GIVEN THE LOOS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN LOW LVL CINH.

GIVEN THE PERSISTENT AND TRAINING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE
HIGH RAINFALL RATES...ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   35088831 35028908 35118971 35329078 35619141 35999138
            36169085 36159012 36108938 35868825 35418803 35088831