MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0292
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
731 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 182330Z - 190400Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI IN PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE
FRONT.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ORIENTED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. IN
ADDITION...THIS WAS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PW
VALUES AND H85 DEWPOINTS.  THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROF FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS AND ENHANCE CONVECTION. 

THE 12Z RUN OF THE ARW WAS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING A COUPLE
INCHES OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE CONVECTION WAS MOST ACTIVE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THAT SOUTHEAST WI HAD BEEN ABLE TO BUILD UP MORE CAPE THAN AREAS
TO THE NORTH GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE.

THE ARW AND THE HRRR BOTH SUGGEST THE THREAT ACROSS THE NORTH
SHOULD BE DWINDLING BY LATE EVENING AS THEY GENERATE INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF CIN AFTER SUNSET...WHILE CAPE VALUES TO THE SOUTH
REMAIN IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J PER KG RANGE.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   44848938 44238697 42908765 43208918 43489076