MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0293...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1120 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014
 
CORRECTED FOR RESEND FOR THE WPC WEBSITE

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 190314Z - 190914Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE EFFICIENT FROM A RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE SHORTLY.  HOURLY RAIN
RATES OF UP TO 2.5" COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS AT AROUND 15 KTS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. 
INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS CURRENTLY 20 KTS -- AROUND DOUBLE THE 850-400
HPA MEAN WINDS AND FROM THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION -- WHILE MUCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ARE BEING FED INTO THE BOUNDARY FROM THE
SOUTH, PER THE MOST RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS INFORMATION. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE REGION ARE AROUND TWO INCHES.

INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE
PER RECENT RAP FORECASTS, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION LATER TONIGHT.  WHILE
INCREASED INFLOW COULD ACCELERATE THE PROGRESSION OF THE
CONVECTIVE BAND, SOME CIN SHOULD FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF
AND COOLING AIR TO ITS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COULD LEAD TO SLOWER
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION IN THE SHORT TERM.  HOURLY RAIN RATES OF
2.5" AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS, AND THE MESOSCALE QPF
GUIDANCE INDICATES LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   30349798 29889747 28999715 28289807 27889905 
            27859978 291410042 30219856