MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0296
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 190559Z - 191159Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE REFORMING WELL NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN AN AREA OF SATURATED SOILS.  FLASH FLOODING IS
CONSIDERED LIKELY HERE.

DISCUSSION...AS THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INITIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAVE WEAKENED, POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME CIN, INFLOW HAS BECOME
UNRESTRICTED INTO AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL TX WHERE
MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN >1000 J/KG, WHICH HAS CAUSED CONVECTION TO
BECOME MORE ELEVATED THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSION INTO SOUTHERN TX. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 2", AND INFLOW INTO THE REGION
IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS INTO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.  FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE EXTREMELY
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TX DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

AS CAPE VALUES CONTINUE TO RECEDE, THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD WITH THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY, AND REMAIN FAIRLY ELEVATED, INTO ANOTHER AREA WHERE IT
HAS RECENTLY RAINED HEAVILY.  THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE -- WHICH
STILL APPEARS TO BE PLACING THIS ACTIVITY WAY TOO FAR TO THE NORTH
-- IS GENERATING LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-5".  CONSIDERING THE SATURATED
SOILS, FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED LIKELY IN THIS REGION UNTIL
AROUND 12Z, WHEN 850 HPA INFLOW WEAKENS.  THIS MPD IS AN UPDATE,
AND REPLACES, MPD #0293.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31249880 31189793 30909783 29939821 28979914 
            283610000 284810042 291010068 301610053 31009991 
            
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