MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0323...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
546 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014
 
CORRECTED FOR MISSING " IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ & SOUTHWEST NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 262141Z - 270301Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.5" AN HOUR
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING/DEBRIS FLOWS WHERE THEY TRAIN.

DISCUSSION...A DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NEVADA,
CAUSING 700 HPA INFLOW OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO
THE REGION. THIS HAS HELPED TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN
AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND TIE IT TO THE MOGOLLON RIM.  A SECOND WEAK
LOW, NOTICEABLE AT 700 HPA NEAR THE EASTERN AZ/MEXICO BORDER,
APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TERRAIN
OF SOUTHEAST AZ.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1-1.5" LURK ACROSS
THE REGION, WHICH ARE CLOSE TO 1.5 SIGMAS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
AUGUST.  MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES, PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE,
ARE IN THE 1000-2500 J/KG RANGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT BREAK AWAY FROM THE TOPOGRAPHY COULD MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 20 KTS PER FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS BEFORE
FADING WITHIN THE MORE STABLE AIR MASS.  A MESOCYCLONE -- SEEN ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY -- MOVING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AZ,
ALONG WITH SLOWLY DECREASING INFLOW INTO THE REGION, SLOWLY
EXHAUSTING CAPE, AND SLOWLY DECREASING MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO RESTRICT FROM WEST TO EAST AND
ULTIMATELY FADE BY 03Z, WHICH WAS USED AS THE TIME HORIZON FOR
THIS MPD.  UNTIL THEN, SOME ORGANIZED AND/OR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CHANCE TO DROP UP TO 1.5" OF RAIN IN AN
HOUR.  FLASH FLOODING/DEBRIS FLOWS ARE CONSIDERED POSSIBLE IN THIS
REGION.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33751321 33901383 34541346 35091286 35731207 36071123
            36121022 35970938 35560873 34580891 33520757 32620798
            32310814 31400820 31251095 31561171 32021180 32351161
            33401056 33521155 33661300 33751321