MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0341
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1022 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS & SOUTHWEST MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 031421Z - 031721Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS SLOWLY SINKING
SOUTHWARD NEAR THE MO/KS BORDER.  FLASH FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
FORMED EARLIER THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH/OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH NEAR OF THE MO/KS
BORDER THIS MORNING, DUE TO A FORMING COLD POOL.  THE COLD POOL
HAS ALLOWED CONVECTION TO FOLLOW BACKWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS INTO THE STRONGEST 850 HPA INFLOW.  THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CAP HAS CONSTRAINED THIS ACTIVITY'S WESTERN
EXTENT TO EASTERN KS.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA REMAINS 25-35 KTS,
STRONGER THAN THE 850-400 HPA MEAN WINDS, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY.  REPORTS FROM THE TOP AND EAX FORECAST
OFFICES ALONG WITH THOSE FROM COCORAHS INDICATE 2-4" OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN SO FAR -- THOUGH THE RADAR-INDICATED MAXIMUM OF 6" IN
SOUTHERN LYNN COUNTY HAD NOT BEEN SAMPLED.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.75-2" EXIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG REMAINING UPSTREAM.  THE CRITERIA FOR THE
WET MULTICELL ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN MET.

THE FORECAST IS FOR THIS CONVECTION TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, FOLLOWING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL TO THE
SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHWEST MO.  THE GUIDANCE WHICH IS
HANDLING THIS BEST CURRENTLY -- THE HRRR, RAP, SPC WRF, AND EXREF
MEMBER #7 -- INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE PAST 18Z
AS LOW-LEVEL INFLOW REMAINS FAIRLY STEADY STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, THOUGH PROPAGATION SHOULD PICK UP THE PACE TO THE SOUTH DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD POOL.  HOURLY RAIN
RATES OF UP TO 2.5" REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4"
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.  FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38489583 38479512 38169357 37429280 36699341 
            36389448 37289607 37689655 38049625