MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0347
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
715 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 062314Z - 070314Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN TX ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WITH HOURLY RAIN
RATES OF UP TO 1-2 INCHES/HR ANTICIPATED...FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE
DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN TX DUE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.   MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW (15-20
KTS) AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH MOIST NORTHEASTERLY INFLOW
TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT PWS AROUND
1.75-2 INCHES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA.  THIS MOISTURE INTERACTING
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH IS
EXPECTED TO HELP SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD BEGIN TO LIMIT THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT AFTER SUNSET.

WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...THE 21Z HRRR AND 12Z
HRW-ARW/NMMB SHOW THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTING...WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z.  GIVEN THE TERRAIN
AND LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31290350 31070297 30680267 29770232 29410282 
            29500321 29650390 30060397 30360380 30640392 
            31180397