MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0352
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
919 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED.....8CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 081319Z - 081819Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PROBABLE BY
MIDDAY AS CONVECTION INCREASES AND INTENSIFIES.

DISCUSSION...12Z KGSO AND KMHX RAOBS SHOW DEEP MOIST CONDITIONS
WITH PW VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND AVERAGE CLOUD LAYER WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS.  CONVECTION ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG AND
NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE NC/SC COAST...AND
ALSO WITHIN VICINITY OF A SECONDARY COASTAL BOUNDARY OR SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR ELIZABETH CITY AND WITHIN AN ENHANCED PLUME OF LOW/MID
LEVEL INFLOW CROSSING WILMINGTON.  LIGHTENING TRENDS AND THE KCAE
RADAR ALSO SHOW WARM RAIN PROCESSES OCCURRING EAST OF COLUMBIA
WITH ECHO TOPS NEAR 35 KFT AND ABSENCE OF LIGHTENING IN A NARROW
AREA EAST OF COLUMBIA.

EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUPPORT CONTINUED EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF DEEP CONVECTION
WITHIN THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA WITH RAIN RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES
PER HOUR EASILY SUPPORTED.  HOWEVER...RAIN RATES MAY ACTUALLY
EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN THE WARM CORE AXIS NEAR FLORENCE
WHERE CLOUD LAYER WINDS ARE WEAKEST. ADDITIONALLY...HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY UNANIMOUS IN ALLOWING DEEP CONVECTION EAST
OF ELIZABETH CITY TO REFORM INLAND WHILE POSSIBLY LIFTING SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...WITH 2 OR MORE HOURS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. 
ALTHOUGH FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY MODEST OR HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION....THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH RAIN RATES FOR
2 OR MORE HOURS WARRANTS A HIGHLIGHTED AND FOCUSED AREA OF
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 18Z.

JAMES

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36587726 36507502 35647518 35487631 34927711 
            33697778 32827877 32668012 33968049 35527928