MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0354
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
204 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......S. CALIFORNIA/S. NEVADA//SW. UTAH/ARIZONA... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 081804Z - 082304Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LIFTING OF UNSTABLE AND UNUSUALLY MOIST
AIR AIDED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MOTIONS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AND MCV.

DISCUSSION...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES FROM 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES PER
HOUR CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SAN
BERNARDINOS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MCV OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.  THESE RATES ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AXIS.  HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SPREAD
INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHWEST UTAH...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WITH THE RATES LIKELY EXCEEDING FFG
VALUES.  RATES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO EXCEED GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA DUE TO LINGERING INFLUENCES OF THE MCV.

JAMES

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...PSR...SGX...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...

LAT...LON   38921451 38021262 36311316 35421263 33700943 
            31460972 31791149 33551190 34821455 33771568 
            33601647 34701688 36691619 38221665