MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0355
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......SE VIRGINIA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 081823Z - 082323Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA IN VICINITY OF A COASTAL BOUNDARY OR SURFACE TROUGH AND
MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH
THE LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA

DISCUSSION...EXTREME RAIN RATES OF 2 TO AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES PER
HOUR CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON A MICRO-SCALE IN VICINITY OF COASTAL
BOUNDARY OR SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER WHERE MAINLY WARM RAIN PROCESSES ARE OCCURRING. 
ON A MESOSCALE/SYNOPTIC-SCALE...THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A DEFORMATION ZONE TO PIVOT NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW
AFFECTING MOST OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  HI-RES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OR POSSIBLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD...WITH
SIMILAR RAIN RATES LIKELY CONTINUING ACROSS A VERY SMALL AREA. 
GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH ALREADY REDUCED FFG
VALUES...THESE RATES WILL LIKELY EXCEED GUIDANCE RESULTING IN
FLASH FLOODING.

JAMES

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   37497492 36587509 36327665 35387720 34577848 
            34817948 36367886 37377716