MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0357
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
732 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN VA/EASTERN NC/FAR NORTHEASTERN SC... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 082332Z - 090402Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN FALLING IN AN OVERRUNNING
FASHION ACROSS MUCH OF NC AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN VA. SOME OF THE
MORE ENHANCED CONVECTION HAS NOW FOCUSED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A
MESOSCALE LOW WHICH IS SLOWLY TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST.
EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. 

DISCUSSION...THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWED A FAIRLY SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH PWATS
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN VA DOWN ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS OF NC/SC. THIS HAS BEEN THE LOCATION OF A WELL DEFINED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY IN NATURE. MUCH OF THE
ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN SEEN NORTH AND WEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHERE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN COMMONPLACE
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC. MOST RECENTLY SOME OF THE ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME ENHANCED BY A MESOSCALE LOW WHICH IS DRIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS LOW. SLOW CELL MOTIONS AND A VERY MOIST
TROPOSPHERE WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS A PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL
IN THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL ALLOW THIS MPD TO CONTINUE
UNTIL 04Z WITH THE THREAT BEING REEVALUATED AS NEWER GUIDANCE
ARRIVES.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   37117715 36837636 35897597 35007594 34227647 
            33657731 33067783 33147866 33917890 35007875 
            36237861 36947805