MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0360
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
131 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN NE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
IA...NORTHEAST MO...WESTERN IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 091730Z - 092330Z
 
SUMMARY...EXPANDING CLUSTERS OF INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BACK-BUILDING AND TRAINING OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL ELEVATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CONVECTIVE
CLOUD TOPS OVER ERN NEB AND EXTENDING INTO SWRN IA ATTM.
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS SEEN DEVELOPING OVER FAR NRN
MO NEAR THE IA BORDER AND WITH CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER WRN IL.
ALL OF THE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCD WITH A STRENGTHENING WARM
AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN OUT AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
TO BE GETTING ENHANCED BY THE NOSE OF A 30 KT TO 40 KT LOW LVL JET
WHICH IS AIMED INTO A WARM FRONT.

THE LATEST GOES SOUNDER LI/S ARE RUNNING AS LOW AS -5 TO -10 OVER
NERN KS...SERN NEB AND ACROSS MUCH OF WRN IA AND NRN MO. MOST OF
THIS AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A WARM FRONT IS SEEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LYR AND
WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF OVER 40 KTS...THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR BACK-BUILDING AND TRAINING
CONVECTION INVOF THE FRONT.

THE LATEST HIRES MODELS INCLUDING THE 12Z NAM-CONEST AND 12Z ARW
STRONGLY SUPPORT AREAS OF CONCENTRATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN AT LEAST
LOCALLY...AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...FSD...ILX...LSX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   42719527 42359290 41419099 40278884 39618831 
            39188864 38918917 38979018 39429170 40089351 
            40439518 40589622 40959686 41599706 42349643