MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0363
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
853 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 110052Z - 110452Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS TWO NARROW LINES OF
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLY MERGE.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ARE HIGHLIGHTING TWO LINES OF ACTIVE CONVECTION THIS EVENING...
ONE LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN OH THROUGH CENTRAL IN INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL IL AND ANOTHER FROM SOUTHEASTERN MO TO EAST-CENTRAL
OK. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... THESE TWO LINES NOT ONLY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO MERGE BUT POSSIBLY MOVE INTO AN ZONE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SPIKING UP TO 2.25" AND POOLING RIGHT
ALONG THE LOWER OH RIVER FROM CVG TO PAH... WHILE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DYNAMICS FUEL ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT. THIS
IS STARTING TO OCCUR NEAR IND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL IL AT THIS TIME.
MEANWHILE... FATHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MO AND NORTHERN
AR... GREATER INSTABILITY AND A BETTER INFLOW OF MOISTURE EXISTS.
GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE
TRAINING OF CELLS... AS FRONT/TROUGH STALL AND FLOW BECOMES ALMOST
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARIES. THE HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES NOT ADD VALUE
TO THE FORECAST SO THIS MESOSCALE FORECAST WAS MORE BASED ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE. A NARROW ZONE OF FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN AR AND UP THE OH RIVER.

MUSHER

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39908612 39288374 38088525 36948855 35289015 
            35089306 35289435 36239368 37069218 38418996