MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0367...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
730 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014
 
CORRECTED FOR AWIPS

AREAS AFFECTED......SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...CENTRAL
TEXAS... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 112242Z - 120242Z
 
SUMMARY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WILL EXPAND THE CURRENT
AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT...AND
WILL ALSO RESULT IN CELL TRAINING AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY THIS
EVENING. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO... AHEAD OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER OR MCV
NUDGING INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE
ACTIVITY IS TAPPING MODEST DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES
BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG...ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PW) VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 INCHES IN EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. 

THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME THIS EVENING AS
THE 850 MB SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KTS. THE
THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE MPD AREA...WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER PWS REMAINING IN
PLACE AND MUCAPES ~1000-1500 J/KG. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER-LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR FURTHER EXPANSION OF
ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION...AS THE FORCING FROM THE MCV
AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
MAINTAIN BROAD-SCALE UPPER DIVERGENCE...DEEP-LAYER ASCENT...AND
LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. FURTHERMORE...THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO A STRONGER UPSLOPE COMPONENT ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...ALONG WITH INCREASED UPWIND
PROPAGATION AND CELL TRAINING.

RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND 3+ INCHES WITHIN 3
HOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE STRONGEST CELLS. MUCH OF THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOW ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-5+ INCHES
ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR...4KM
NAM CONEST...NSSL WRF...AND BOTH THE WRF ARW AND NMMB...THOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN. FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HURLEY

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34270446 33970364 33450331 32510301 31690184 
            31309983 31489845 31269808 30879858 30469962 
            30200092 30130212 30280335 30930423 31820487 
            32520527 33280562 34000527