MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0371
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NM...CENTRAL/WESTERN TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 121225Z - 121800Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. THE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL FOSTER
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION OVER FAR SERN NM AND INTO WRN TX
ATTM...WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
FLOW REGIME.

SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS INCLUDES THE 06Z NAM-CONEST...00Z
ARW AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN WHICH ALL SUGGEST A CONCENTRATED
THREAT OF VERY HVY RAIN FOR SERN NM AND WRN TX THROUGH 18Z.

THE CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY THE INTERACTION OF A SWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH A PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WITH SOME EMBEDDED VORT ENERGY THAT IS
EMANATING FROM NRN MEXICO. DESPITE THE EXTREMELY MODEST
INSTABILITY PROFILES...SUFFICIENT DEEP LYR FORCING IS IN PLACE FOR
PERSISTENT CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION AND WITH ENHANCED LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE COLD
FRONT DROPPING SWD THROUGH ERN NM/WRN TX...EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE.

FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ESP WHERE HEAVIER RAINS HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED...AND GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS...LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY.

ORRISON 

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34079815 33509768 32899802 32319910 31950031 
            31620213 31400370 31320519 31560588 31990599 
            32570576 33250469 33350352 33480188 34069998