MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0372
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
207 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NM...WESTERN TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 121800Z - 122100Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND THE
SLOW MOVEMENT WILL FOSTER A CONTINUATION OF FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY
COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS REGENERATING OVER PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND FAR
WRN TX IN ASSOC WITH A VERY MOIST DEEP LYR FETCH OF MOISTURE.
SBCAPE VALUES MEANWHILE BASED ON THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS ARE
RUNNING AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG TO 3000 J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST TX. THERE
ARE MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS SETTLING SOUTH OVER THE
REGION...INCLUDING A ROBUST SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL SURGE MOVING
DOWN THROUGH SERN NM AND FAR WRN TX ATTM...AND THESE BNDRYS ARE
INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP MOISTURE FEED AND
INSTABILITY POOL.

THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z NAM-CONEST AND 12Z ARW
SHOW CONVECTION PERISTING AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER SERN
NM AND WRN TX...BUT EVENTUALLY A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCD
WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD
ALLOW THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OR PUSH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32950508 32700363 32790282 32880208 32520138 
            31480146 30760217 30410333 30380416 30570494 
            30880563 31600645 32300640 32850578