MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0373
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC...SOUTHEAST NC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 121825Z - 130015Z
 
SUMMARY...VERY SLOW-MOVING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY
AGITATED CU/TCU FIELD OVER SERN NC AND CNTRL/ERN SC...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEN ORGANIZING IN RADAR
IMAGERY. THE ACTIVITY IS FORMING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SITUATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
PWATS OF 2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES ARE NOTED IN THE GOES-SOUNDER
DATA...AND THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
3000 J/KG LOCALLY.

THE 12Z NAM-CONEST...12Z ARW...12Z NMMB AND THE 12Z NSSL-WRF ALL
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF VERY SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN. IN FACT...THE
NAM-CONEST SUGGESTS RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXCEEDING 5 INCHES THROUGH
00Z. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CELL-MERGERS AND
CLUSTERS OF MULTI-CELL CONVECTION THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 3 INCHES/HR...AND WITH SUCH SLOW
MOVEMENT...THERE WILL BE CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE AMTS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35317630 34897615 34357693 33597811 32777938 
            32318087 33498196 34078211 34668170 35048097 
            35297950 35227781