MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0379
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1203 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST MO...NORTHERN AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 171600Z - 172000Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT SOME AREAS
ALREADY HIT BY HEAVY RAINS THIS MORNING...AND THEREFORE ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...REPEATING CLUSTERS OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION CONTINUE
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SWRN MO ATTM...WITH THE CONVECTION FOCUSING
ALONG A SHARPLY ORIENTED ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT NORTHEAST
OF A WARM FRONT. SIGNIFICANT SPEED CONVERGENCE IS NOTED AT 850 MB
OVER SWRN MO AND THERE IS A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION AS
WELL THAT IS DROPPING SEWD. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE IS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR REGENERATING/REPEATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD HELP
TO ERODE ANY LINGERING SBCIN OVER SERN KS/NERN OK AND INTO FAR
SWRN MO WHERE THE WARM SECTOR RESIDES. INCREASED SBCAPE VALUES
WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AND OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT...AND THIS
ENERGY COUPLED WITH FOCUSED MOISTURE/SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
LVLS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED 700 MB TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE TO REGENERATE WHILE GRADUALLY FOCUSING FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SRN MO AND INTO NRN AR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TOO FOR THE
ACTIVITY TO BEGIN DEVELOPING SWWD INTO THE NOSE OF THE
MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LVL JET.

GOES-SOUNDER PWATS ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...BUT WITH A COUPLE OF CELL
MERGERS AND OVERSHOOTING TOPS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE ENHANCED FURTHER. GIVEN SOME OF
THE HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY NOTED THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED
REDEVELOPMENT...ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

ORRISON

 

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38419370 38249284 37539178 36559100 35869117 
            35539203 35679304 36299394 36929415 37379434 
            37729461 38119449