MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0380
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AZ...SOUTHWEST NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 171930Z - 180130Z
 
SUMMARY...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE WILL FOCUS INCREASINGLY HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER
NWRN MEXICO ATTM...HOWEVER THE REMNANT CORE OF CONVECTION AND
HEAVIER RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD SERN AZ. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLING ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE APPROACHING MID LVL VORT
CENTER/CIRCULATION OF ODILE...AND THERE ARE TRENDS FOR HEAVIER
RAINS AND SOME LOCALLY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ASSOC WITH THE
GRADUAL INCREASE IN DIURNAL HEATING.

RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE REMNANT
CNTRL CORE AND ALSO FARTHER NORTH IN AZ JUST SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM WHERE OROGRAPHICS APPEAR TO BE AIDING IN LARGER SCALE FORCING
GIVEN THE BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF ODILE.

THE 12Z NAM-CONEST APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
ODILE...BUT THE 12Z ARW AND 12Z NMMB HAVE A BETTER REPRESENTATION
OF THE CURRENT PCPN SHIELD AND ORGANIZATION OF ODILE...AND BOTH OF
THESE MODELS DEPICT HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SERN AZ...AND GRADUALLY MOVING BACK INTO SWRN
NM...ESP AFTER 00Z. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH ISOLD HEAVIER AMTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREAS OF LESS ORGANIZED BUT INTENSE
CONVECTION ARE ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
OVER CNTRL AZ AND INCLUDING THE MOGOLLON RIM.

GIVEN WET CONDITIONS LOCALLY FROM EARLIER RAINS...AND WITH
INCREASING RAINFALL RATES/COVERAGE ASSOC WITH ODILE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35351171 34981009 34760840 34450734 33480673 
            32340704 31710764 31350834 31250868 31190928 
            31231067 31371149 31761221 32511263 33261294 
            34131312 34961286