MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0382
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
930 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHERN NM/EXTREME WEST TX... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 180129Z - 180729Z
 
SUMMARY...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST AZ AND
SOUTHWEST NM. NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST
MEXICO...COMPLETE WITH COOLING TOPS...IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHERN NM AND THE PANHANDLE OF WEST TX
DURING THE EVENING. 

THE BEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR TRENDS OVER AND
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NM. THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BOTH THE 12Z ARW AND CONEST
SHOWED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 

GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAIN...AND THE DEEP
MOISTURE WITH ODILE MOVING INTO THE REGION...FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY. THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...LUB...MAF...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34550642 34490419 33670296 32940301 32580329 
            32070397 31470491 31120554 30770667 30590742 
            30340864 30301116 32151136 33501084 34270873