MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0387
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
954 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SE NM...W TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 181353Z - 181853Z
 
SUMMARY...A NARROW AXIS OF FOCUSED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. A GENERAL SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED...BUT HIGH
RATES IN THE HEAVIER CORES...COMBINED WITH SLOW MOVEMENT...MAY
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION IN WEST TEXAS HAD THE RADAR
CHARACTER OF A SOAKING...RATHER THAN EXCESSIVE EVENT. THE
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE DECEIVING...HOWEVER... WITH SOME EVIDENCE TO
SUGGEST A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS NEAR 1.7
INCHES AND ABOVE...WHICH IS HIGH FOR ANY TIME OF YEAR IN THIS
REGION. THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS UNUSUALLY HIGH AT AROUND 16000 FT
ABOVE GROUND FOR A LOW LEVEL PARCEL PER THE 12Z MAF RAOB. DUAL POL
DATA FROM LUBBOCK ESTIMATED POCKETS OF 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR AND
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

AN MCV APPRAOCHING FROM THE WEST AND A WEAK BUT WELL ESTABLISHED
COLD POOL TO THE NORTH...WILL PUSH NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. CAPE INCREASES IN THIS DIRECTION...AND DEEP
LAYER STEERING WINDS BECOME PARTICULARLY LIGHT THIS
MORNING...WHILE INFLOW AT 850 MB AND ESPECIALLY 700 MB REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE 10Z AND 11Z
HRRR SHOW A PARTICULARLY STRONG SIGNAL...WITH WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2
INCH RAINFALL AND ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS THROUGH 19Z.
INTENSIFICATION OF THE PRE-EXISTING MCV...AND/OR DEVELOPMENT OF A
NEW MCV...IS POSSIBLE JUDGING BY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE MAF
RAOB...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD LATENT HEAT RELEASE. THIS
COULD FURTHER ORGANIZE THE EVENT ON A SMALL SCALE...MAKING
ISOLATED 4-5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LUBBOCK AND
NORTH OF I-20.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34270144 33910012 33479948 32689954 32240007 
            31840194 32020380 32960409 34110311