MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0390
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
503 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NM...SOUTHWEST TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 190902Z - 191400Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING HOURS
AS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST NM MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIRMASS OVER PARTS OF WEST TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST NM WAS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST
AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES ACROSS THIS REGION. 
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAD BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED
AND WAS DRAWING AN UNUSUALLY MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE AREA OF
ONGOING CONVECTON. THIS SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES IN AN
AREA WHICH HAD ALREADY RECEIVED A PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS.  

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES OF SEVERAL INCHES PER HOUR SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS AREA OF RAINFALL DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND GREATEST LOWER LEVEL
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST TO
THE NORTH OF THERE GIVEN LACK OF A CAP AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY.  

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST WITH THE
AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS LIKELY.  

BANN

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33980430 33710330 33060206 31000170 31030333 
            31420406 32530430