MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0404
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
823 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 021222Z - 021600Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.  FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE

DISCUSSION...MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE
IN THE MOIST SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW---PW VALUES 1.5 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. 
TRAINING OF CELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING.  WITH FFG VALUES HAVING
LOWERED TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT FROM EARLIER RAINS AND RADAR
ESTIMATES OF OF 2"+ PER HOUR OCCURRING WITH THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY---FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

THE LATEST HI RES ARW---SPCWRF AND HRRR 6 HOUR FORECASTS FROM 1200
TO 1800 UTC SEEM TO FIT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WELL WITH RESPECT
TO THE QPF AXES.  THE OVERALL FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAINS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT LIKELY TO PUSH ACROSS
THE THREAT REGIONS.

ORAVEC

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39449206 39369075 39318985 39008950 38588958 
            37949070 37439221 37319279 37119369 37099465 
            37269500 38819454 39169393