MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0405
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1214 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA....NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI...EXTREME WESTERN ILLINOIS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 021613Z - 022113Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAY
LEAD TO INCREASING RAINFALL RATES IN CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY
AND NORTH OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW A NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ORIENTED GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS GRADUALLY
WEAKENING...INSTABILITY IS INCREASING IN THE WARM SECTOR (MUCAPES
2000-3000 J/KG) AND CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE REINVIGORATING FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI PER COOLING CLOUD TOPS
NOTED ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. RAINFALL RATES IN THIS
CONVECTION ATTM APPEAR TO BE AVERAGING AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR
BASED ON DUAL-POL RADAR ESTIMATES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...WOULD EXPECT THESE RATES TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FFG VALUES ARE LOW ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSOURI DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION...NEAR OR BELOW
1 INCH/HOUR IN MANY AREAS.

EXPECT THE INCREASING TREND SHOWN BY NEW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
INTO AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE OUTLINED AREA
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE
SPCWRF AND SSEO MEAN BOTH INDICATE THE THREAT HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE OUTLINED AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. ONE FACTOR THAT
WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE THE MOVEMENT
OF CONVECTION...WITH MEAN DEEP-LAYER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
30-45 KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

RYAN

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40519120 39869062 39179074 38799132 38499259 
            38009371 38199436 38729471 39279494 39899512 
            40479480 40449330