MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0406...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
450 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2014
 
CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN KS...NWRN AR...NERN OK...SWRN AND
CENTRAL MO...WEST CENTRAL IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 022038Z - 030030Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING OF CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR AND 2-3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS. FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
WEST-EAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI EXTENDING INTO
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ENHANCED
BY COOL OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. NEW
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD TO THE NEBRASKA/MISSOURI
BORDER. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES IN THIS CONVECTION ARE
INDICATED BY DUAL-POL RADAR ESTIMATES. THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...MAY BE ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
ADDITIONALLY...ACCORDING TO LATEST RAP ANALYSIS...UPPER-LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS APPEAR MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED INCREASE IN
CONVECTION...WITH THE REGION SITUATED FAVORABLY IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK FARTHER NORTH...AND THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A WEAKER JET STREAK IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER.
THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF
MULTIPLE CELLS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS. FFG VALUES REMAIN LOW OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION.

THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF
CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT...AND SHOWS THE CONVECTION CROSSING MUCH
OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES SHOWN. INSTABILITY SHOULD BEGIN
TO WANE GRADUALLY FROM 00Z ONWARD AS INDICATED BY THE RAP. AS A
RESULT THE RAINFALL INTENSITY AND THE RESULTANT FLASH FLOODING
THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE.

RYAN

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...ILX...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39689141 39498961 38788950 37269105 36499233 
            36349257 35629359 35149466 35049571 35499608 
            36409550 37639489 38349432 39059364 39589231